Trading the Under 2.5s Football Market

I know of this stratagey from another source but its also covered on this site here.
The reason for re-posting it here is that the original article is poorly formatted and I have some of my own findings to it (sorry Dean!).
So what is this strategy?
We are basically backing games where we expect there to be less than 3 goals. The overs/unders 2.5 market is one of the most liquid markets (after the straight up win/lose/draw market).
So what are we looking for before entering a trade on the Unders Market:
  • Focus on league games only and look at top leagues like English Premier League where average goals per season for the last 16 years is between 2.45 and 2.80
  • A game where under 2.5 goals market is priced between 2.0 and 3.0 on Betfair. Typically, anything under 2.0 and the market tends to move very slowly. The closer you get to 3.0 then the price will move quicker but remember the market expectation is for many goals so higher risk
  • Previous five home matches of home side ending in less than 3 goals and five away matches of away side ending in less than 3 goals
Additionally you can check what betvirus thinks in terms of the unders and overs probability by going here and looking for matches where unders probability is 65% or higher.
So how to trade it:
  • Just before kick off put 100% of your stake in the market to back the under 2.5s at the current price. You can try and back at the current lay price and steal a tick as the price often moves up very slightly at kick-off but there is a risk of not getting matched
  • We are then going to put four lay bets into the market each one at 25% of our original back stake at 20 ticks away from our original back bet
Example Trade:
  • Place a back bet at 2.22 for £100 stake
  • Place first lay bet at 2.02 for £25 stake
  • Place second lay bet at 1.82 for £25 stake
  • Place third lay bet at 1.62 for £25 stake
  • Place fourth lay bet at 1.42 for £25 stake
Try and watch the game if possible, if it starts fast and the price on the unders isn’t moving very quickly then it might be worth cashing out early in case there is an early goal.
I would aslo recommend you watch Ben Michaels’ excellent video on this subject here.